The World Doesn’t Need Someone Telling Us What We Don’t Need In Tech
03 Jan 2010 // 27 comments // Internet Development
If Joe Wilcox ran the computer industry, we’d still be using typewriters.
Wilcox has a lengthy post today on BetaNews saying that the world doesn’t need an Apple tablet. And while Wilcox does have some decent general points mixed in with some bad ones, this is hardly a new thought. In fact, it’s little more than an extension of a concept that has been around for a while, but has been reinvigorated recently as the hype around Apple swirls: That tablet computers are a niche product. Of course, it’s easy to argue that when you have history on your side up until this point. But Wilcox’s post completely overlooks what is likely to be the larger point, and in general is a dangerous way of thinking.
Now, let me just state right off the bat, that Wilcox’s conclusion could absolutely be right: That Apple’s tablet device may well turn out to be a bust. While Apple has a great recent track record, a new product is still always going to be somewhat of a crapshoot, even for them. That said, Wilcox seems awfully close-minded about the product’s potential, and frames his argument around that. He argues, for example, that an Apple tablet will be little more than a less-compelling version of the iPhone because it is less portable. Meanwhile, users who want more computing power will continue to use laptops. Again, that’s the basic premise behind the most of the recent arguments against Apple’s tablet. But Wilcox doesn’t even for a second imagine something that is very obvious to most people who follow Apple closely: The likelihood that they’re going to release a product exactly as we’re currently thinking about it, is very small.
There is a reason that no less than Steve Jobs is said to be running point on this project, and has been for the several years that it has been in existence. The thought that Apple is simply going to settle, and release a product that is largely the same as all the other tablet computers that have come before it, is laughable. Jobs himself has supposedly shot down the product a few times because it wasn’t up to snuff. Don’t think that he won’t do it again, if he has to. But the indications now suggest that this product may finally be up to what he considers to be Apple’s standards. And if that’s the case, we can all expect something that’s at least somewhat unexpected.
And it’s potentially even bigger than that. Last week, I argued that the reason everyone is so excited about this tablet is because there is the very real possibility that it will alter the role of computing in our lives just as the iPhone has. Daring Fireball’s John Gruber took that concept further: “I think The Tablet is nothing short of Apple’s reconception of personal computing,” he wrote. While both of those concepts may sound a bit extreme, stop to think what is more likely: That Apple is happy to create a standard offering in a niche category, or that they’re trying to redefine the category and possibly the entire market?
It’s Apple, they’re trying to hit a homerun. That doesn’t mean they won’t strike out, but make no mistake that they are swinging for the fences. To create a bland tablet in the image of those that existed before it would be the equivalent of a bunt with no one on and two outs.
Something else to consider: There is the very real possibility that this could be Jobs’ last major new product launch. Health issues aside, Jobs will sooner or later retire from Apple. As we all know, products take a long time to come into existence from beginning to end — especially at Apple. And while I’m sure they have other new projects in the pipeline, it certainly seems possible that this tablet could be the last major one for a least a few years. Does anyone really think Jobs is going to go out betting on a niche product? No.
Wilcox argues that Apple’s recent hits like the iPod and iPhone were both just extensions of markets that already existed and were proven: Portable music players and mobile phones. That’s true, and Wilcox does acknowledge that Apple did make both of those markets better with their offerings. But he says that the tablet market won’t be the same because it’s “niche,” and Apple won’t be able to jump start it. Of course, this completely overlooks perhaps the best example: That Apple did jump start the personal computing revolution in the 1970s and 1980s. Before that, the best way to describe the PC was “niche.”
The most peculiar aspects of Wilcox’s post: His constant asking for readers to argue with him in the comments (we call this “baiting”), and his thought that if the tablet flops, it will demolish Apple’s stock price (I mean, it’s not like they’re making billions in profit each quarter off of all their other businesses and have more than enough leverage for even large risks now), simply distract from the rest of his post. Wilcox often likes to take the contrarian approach with regard to Apple, and that’s fine, it stirs interesting thoughts and discussions. But he’s often wrong, simply because it seems like he’s wants to reach a certain conclusion.
But all of this goes deeper still. The main problem I have with Wilcox’s post is the implication is that no company should step outside of its comfort zone. The arguments that Apple shouldn’t build a tablet simply because other companies have tried and failed in the past, or that they shouldn’t make a tablet because they failed with the Cube, are both troubling. Apple clearly believes that the future of computing is touch-based, and the tablet is a step in that direction. Maybe they’re wrong, but it would be a disservice to everyone to suggest they not even bother to try and find out. The potential upside is far too high. It’s the kind of stuff that keeps technology exciting and advancing.
[photo: flickr/rego]
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This entry was posted on Sunday, January 3rd, 2010 at 8:45 am and is filed under Internet Development. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Even if this were to fail as spectacularly as MS and Vista, Apple still dominates with the iPhone and iTouch. The majority of people are still using Windows.
With every new technology, there will be people there to tear it down. It’s something every entrepreneur faces, family and friends warning them that their idea just isn’t going to work. Businesses are still started, markets are created, and the world continues to innovate. Otherwise we’d all still be living in caves because it’s really “good enough.”
Also, even if the tablet is a bust financially, it can teach us lessons about where technology can and will go into the future. Everything is moving in this direction, Apple just wants to be the one to lead us (and subsequently benefit financially).
Joe Wilcox may not ultimately be wrong but Apple isn’t wrong in its decision to pursue it.
And Apple will have another revenue stream through content delivery from the publishers to their proprietary platform. And that will please the stock holders.
+1
It’s going to be as portable as a newspaper or magazine. It’s goal is not to replace netbooks or laptops or phones, it’s goal is to be another device to consume media. Newspaper stands and magazine racks will be a thing of the past as every magazine content can be instantly downloaded (or pushed) to the device every day/month. I don’t understand how some individuals cannot see this is the future.
And then it will be 50 articles a day. If by any change the product is not that good, the bloggers will hype this thing until it can navigate space exploration. Any other company releases a tablet and they get no press. This trend is starting to backfire and I would expect many negative comments to come from the dedicated coverage we will see in a few days.
I wish your rebuttal had been a bit less fanboi and a bit more objective. Apple does have a great history of innovation and success but so did MS before Vista. I’d rather hear why the tablet market could benefit from what Apple could contribute than why Apple will (probably) make the best super-de-duper tablet in the world. You never even touch on the fact that those who want a tablet PC don’t necessarily want it to be portable outside the house, but rather portable inside the house. It’s couch computing made easy with a side of magazine evolution thrown in. The future of the tablet market is less about competing with laptops and smartphones and more about evolving the way we consume media from the internet to books and magazines.
while i could see myself buying a tablet, i cant see any of my “not to so gadget nerdy friends” that own an iphone buy one.
They all have a Notebook and a good mobile phone, a tablet in the 500-1000 bucks range is just not needed.
The world really does not need bloggers either, but somehow *all* of the bloggers seem to be writing about the same damn thing: A non existent tablet computer and whether is may or may not be a flop and what it may or may not do if it is or is not a flop. (Sometimes they also write about articles that they have written in the past that discuss what the tablet might do or not do if it is or is not a flop)
Apple, please release it or don’t, but please invent something that will get us past this 10 articles a day tabletblog madness.
Yeah, he’s definitely wrong. It’s just another sign of closed-mind thinking. It’s similar to all those naysayers of the recent rumors from China indicating that Apple is thinking of selling 10 million units. If you broaden your horizons as the following article indicates, you’ll find that are enough reasons to support the potential for selling 10 million units in the first year of the Tablet’s release.
http://www.allt…ar-is-possible/
Siegler,
My main opposition to your post is that as investors we expect Apple to produce products people want. Not necessarily build products for research.
I personally don’t believe Apple is releasing a tablet. I tend to agree with Joe Wilcox. The world doesn’t need a tablet.
-Augustus
I picked Apple as an investment in Apple (and recommended others) around 1997. I have seen Apple through the highs and the lows and stuck with the company.
What separates Steve Jobs more than anything is the business sense and his focus on the consumer design.
After having read both articles, (Tech crunch and Betanews), I have to agree that Wilcox is probably right.
Frankly, I am not even sure Apple is releasing a tablet to begin with.
We will have to wait and see.
-Augustus
That was not necessary
Isn’t it about the concept? If a company tries to build a product trying to achieve certain goals, it’s about the goals they’re trying to achieve, not the product itself. If they’d get it right the first time, it would be a perfect product, and there’d be no need to adjust it… ever again. Even the successful iPod has been re-made and re-thought about 5 times since it’s launch. If Apple tries to conceive something new, it isn’t guaranteed that it will be something we all want. What is guaranteed though, is that they will try to create something new, something that hasn’t been done ever before. This is called progression, and without progression, we would all still be living in caves using sticks and stones.
Paragraphs are your friend.
I think an Xbox based portable device would be infinitely more awesome than an iSlate.
You’re right. The ‘world’ doesn’t need to be told what to buy. It’ll make its own mind up so there’s little point in MG and his cohorts doing their usual freelance Apple marketing here.
An Apple tablet will be bought by a few million gushing fanboys. Everyone else will just shake their heads and move on.
I love it more when he misses and gets savaged.
Yes, we need silverlight, MG.
Perhaps one thing that’s more dangerous than someone telling us what we don’t need is someone telling us that we don’t need someone telling us what we don’t need.
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Yeah I agree,although I’m sure it will be a very nice tablet. I’m just not going to replace my macbook with something that doesn’t have a keyboard. I don’t care how good the software is on this tablet. I’m not going to be able to convince my wife that I can spend $1,000 on huge gadget I don’t need. How am I going to write an email without a keyboard? How am I going to look at stuff on something that sits flat against the table pointing up?
I hope these rumors are wrong, because a tablet is a terrible idea.
i think this should be some sort of auto response that shows up after each article posted on the website. thanks for the laugh.
Wilcox is probably just one of the many people out there who are tired of Apple products being set up as the salvation of mankind. Using Apple products is almost like converting to a religion for some people, and it gets tiring to listen to.
Yeah, Apple TV is really “Major”
No wonder the iPhone is a failure…
-1
I take your $20 and raise you $50.
Get outta that guy’s butt.
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